Belarus is now busy racking up export, including by exporting more oil products. Due to the crisis in several European countries there is a possibility that the situation on the energy resources market may become unfavorable. But the expert believes that it is not a crucial factor for Belarus and the country will be able to find its niche on the international market.
Yet Georgy Grits remarked that the crisis in eurozone may leak into other territories via certain multipliers. For instance, the crisis can reduce the gross output of industrial products, which need energy resources. Hence the demand for energy resources goes down as well as the demand for Belarusian oil products. However, the share of Belarusian oil products in the total European consumption is low, therefore the fear is low.
“Fears that the crisis in eurozone may immediately affect Belarusian export are unfounded and outdated I think. But it doesn’t mean the problem should be hushed up. It should be resolved from the point of view of regional diversification and diversification of commodities. Market areas and product choices should be expanded,” said the scientist.
He also remarked that export growth is one of the sources to settle Belarus’ foreign debt. At present the foreign trade surplus is rising. It gives ground to belief that the republic will be able to handle its external debt liabilities.
Belarus has borrowed about $3 billion from the IMF. In the last ten years World Bank loans have risen to about $800 million. “Besides, we have yet to tap into Eurasian loans as large as about $3 billion,” Georgy Grits reminded about the EurAsEC Anticrisis Fund loan, three tranches of which have been received already. One should bear in mind tied loans from China, which are worth a total of $15 billion. There are loans from Venezuela and Azerbaijan, remarked the expert. “Therefore, let’s not incline towards pessimism. I think that at present and in the medium term the Belarusian economy will remain stable,” the researcher believes.
