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MINSK, 26 August (BelTA) – Belarus is set to meet the 2011 foreign trade targets, the head of the directorate for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting of the Belarusian Economy Ministry Anton Dolgovechny told reporters.
“The balance of foreign trade in 2011 will be within the projected corridor and even better,” said Anton Dolgovechny. At the same time, according to the Economy Ministry, GDP will increase by 5 or 6% next year, which is below the forecast.
In January-July 2011, the GDP growth was reliant on domestic demand, which was not a good trend. But now it seems the situation is changing for the better. Since May 2011 (after devaluation) the effect of external factors on the GDP growth is becoming all the more noticeable. This is confirmed by the growth of exports, which is outstripping the growth of imports. In January-July, it is expected that exports will outperform imports by 12%. Moreover, a surplus of foreign trade in goods in July is expected to reach $100-150 million, taking into account trade in services it will reach $250 million.
Increasing influence of external demand on the GDP growth is also confirmed by the growth of exports in industrial products. In Q1, the ratio of exports to the industrial production was less than 50%, in Q2 it was already 59%, and in July, this figure is estimated at 64%, said Anton Dolgovechny. Thus, this fact indicates that the Belarusian industry is getting increasingly focused on exports, which is good for increasing the foreign trade surplus.
The representative of the Economy Ministry stressed that devaluation helped reduce the foreign trade deficit. “Thanks to devaluation selling to the foreign market has become more attractive,” he said.
Anton Dolgovechny took note of the GDP growth next year. “As regards the forecast for the next year, we have outlined a number of scenarios for the GDP growth,” he said. The ministry believes, however, that current imbalances have to be eliminated in order to meet the forecast. “We need to adopt right decisions to avoid today’s negative expectations,” he added.
“Next year we will be moving further on the way towards balanced economic recovery, with aggregate demand not surpassing GDP growth,” Anton Dolgovechny said. Yet, he did not specify the GDP growth projections for the next year.
In his words, a draft social and economic development forecast for the next year is usually prepared by September. This time, keeping in mind the current situation, it is almost impossible to do. “We understand that at first we should decide on the country’s further steps. This is why we suggest rescheduling the deadline for the preparation of the document,” he stated.
