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Thursday, 18 August 2011
Belarusian economic expert, Irena Krylovich thinks that inflation will continue to increase in Belarus, currently reaching a level of 50%. The future fluctuation of inflation will be closely correlated to government’s decision whether to conduct another ruble devaluation.
Should the government restrain from introducing another sharp devaluation, the authorities will try to maintain inflation increase at the level of 5% monthly, which will result in a 70% devaluation of ruble at the end of the year, thinks the expert.
Simultaneously, credit rates will increase, because the central bank will be forced to raise the interest rates. – In accordance with documents previously singed and accepted international agreements, central bank interest rates should reach the 70% rate at the end of this year. I am not sure if that will be the case, but we can at least expect that interest rate will go up to 40%. – said Krylovich, commenting on the credit agreement between Belarus and Eurasian Economic Community. Just recently the National Belarusian Bank has increased the interest rate for the seventh time – to 22%.
Krylovich does not trust the optimistic data published by the government on growth of bank deposits. – Part of the growth are checking accounts, where salaries are paid. And just recently state employees had their wages revalued. Hence, it is still unclear if people are actually increasing their bank deposits – added Krylovich.
The expert advises to Belarusians, who have their foreign currency deposits in banks, not to withdraw them, and to those who have savings in rubles – she suggested they simply spent it or exchange for a different currency, before their value goes down.
„Of course, I am not advising to anyone, to go and buy currency at the black market, the black market rates are not profitable. But it’s advisable to make use of a bank offer and exchange money for currency, or just simply spent them – for example on health care or children’s education. – Krylovich suggested.
Belsat
