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MINSK, 26 August (BelTA) – The Belarusian Economy Ministry refrains from making inflation forecasts for 2011, Anton Dolgovechny, Head of the Central Office for Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting of the Belarusian Economy Ministry, told the press on 26 August.
“I will refrain from making specific forecasts regarding this year’s inflation. Devaluation, multiple exchange rates are still there, making precise inflation forecasts difficult,” said Anton Dolgovechny. In his words, with the economy so uncertain “any reference point I can mention will be interpreted differently as a correct reference point or a wrong one”. The official attributed inflation to devaluation and an excessive money supply. With these phenomena intact, it is difficult to predict price growth. Anton Dolgovechny remarked that calculations had been made and they widely varied. “It will be possible to talk about inflation processes depending on what the single exchange rate will be,” he said.
According to the National Statistics Committee of Belarus, prices soared 45.8% between December 2010 and mid-August 2011. “The inflation level is very high and is far beyond the forecast bracket,” said Anton Dolgovechny. He remarked that the consumer price index would continue growing.
Analyzing causes behind the inflation, the official stressed that a more aggressive anti-inflation policy was required to remove them. It is necessary to introduce three regulators or components, he said. Those are the regulation of the aggregate demand, producer costs, and inflation expectations. Inflation expectations are the key component, believes Anton Dolgovechny. “How to remove them is a difficult and complex question. It is necessary to work on restoring the level of trust in the government’s economic policy”. A single exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble should be an important step. All of it had been voiced by the President rather clearly, stressed the representative of the Economy Ministry. Thus, restrictions on the aggregate demand and a strict monetary management policy will be able to address existing problems, believes Anton Dolgovechny.
