Ukraine and Belarus: Friends Against Russia?

This month the EU External Action faced a stubborn unwillingness of two post-Soviet countries to listen to its advice on political reforms. As the diplomatic scandal unfolded in Minsk, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry protested against the behaviour of the EU Ambassador to Ukraine. At the same time, Belarus and Ukraine are under increasing pressure from Moscow to participate in its new integration initiatives. Victor Yanukovich even promised to make Russian the second official language in Ukraine.

These developments should motivate Belarus and Ukraine to actively cooperate on the basis of common interests. But instead the two countries often clash with each other. For example, in March Ukraine prohibited imports of Belarusian meat and dairy products. It raises a question whether Victor Yanukovich and Alexander Lukashenka have enough political will to improve their relations and strengthen sovereignty of their countries.

Belarus-Ukraine Trade War

Earlier this month the Ukrainian sanitary inspection suspected that Belarusian meat products might be infected by the African cattle-plague and its dairy products contain other harmful components. Belarusian authorities refused to implement a reciprocal ban and entered into a dialogue with Ukraine. Observers think that Ukraine did that in order to compensate losses for its dairy producers estimated at $270 mln annually. Earlier Russia banned exports of seven Ukrainian producers because of high concentration of palm oil.

Nevertheless, Belarusian-Ukrainian goods turnover grew by 40% in 2011 with Belarusian trade surplus more than $2,1 bln. Thus Ukraine remains the third most important trade partner of Belarus after Russia and the EU.

20 Years of Friendship Despite Difficulties

Since their independence, Belarus and Ukraine have maintained good relations despite difficulties. The lowest point was right after the Ukrainian “orange revolution” in 2004. Belarusian authorities feared the spread of revolutionary activities to Minsk and broadcasted anti-Ukrainian propaganda on state television. For several years Ukraine became the main base for offices of American and European funds that supported Belarusian opposition and NGOs. Unlike for Lithuania and Poland, Belarusians need no visas to go to Ukraine and Russian is widely spoken there. 

When Victor Yanukovich, an ethnic Belarusian himself, assumed power as a new president several Lukashenka-Yushchenko agreements reached a deadlock.

Bilateral relations gained new impetus after the 2008 parliamentary election in Belarus when the EU started an engagement policy with Belarus. Ukraine took the role of mediator in Belarus-EU relations and became the locomotive of the EU Eastern Partnership activities. Kyiv supported Belarusian authorities in a conflict over their representation in the EaP Parliamentary Assembly EuroNest. Then the Ukraine-Belarus relations reached the highest point.

However, when Victor Yanukovich, an ethnic Belarusian himself, assumed power as a new president, several Lukashenko-Yushchenko agreements reached a deadlock. Last year Yanukovich did not invite Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko to an international conference on Chernobyl nuclear disaster in Kyiv. This provoked Lukashenka’s nervous reaction and he even verbally assaulted Yanukovich. That made the relations worse and impeded the resolution of the long-lasting border demarcation dispute.

No Border – No NATO Membership

Belarus has not ratified the State Border Treaty because of a long-standing debt to Belarus of the Ukrainian government. In 1992, several Belarusian enterprises transferred money to Ukrainian enterprises, but did not receive expected goods in exchange. Belarusian authorities consider it as a part of Ukrainian public debt to Belarus estimated at $134 mln. For a long period of time, Ukraine denied such claims taking the view that this was a debt of private companies that do not exist anymore.

When Ukraine declared its NATO aspirations, Kyiv was interested to resolve the dispute with Belarus as soon as possible. All NATO countries should have stable and clearly defined borders and no territorial disputes with their neighbours. At a 2009 meetings in Chernihiv, Yushchenko and Lukashenka finally found a solution. Ukraine agreed to acknowledge its debt and committed to  provide Belarus with discounted Ukrainian energy supplies as a way to repay it.

Then Belarus ratified the Border Treaty, but the sides have not yet exchanged the ratification protocols. Yanukovich planned to visit Minsk last year, but the diplomatic scandal which followed the Chernobyl conference mentioned above spoiled bilateral relations. Foreign ministries had to postpone the visit.

Future of Belarus-Ukraine Relations

Yushchenko’s political demise cut short the anti-Russian trend in Belarus-Ukraine relations, but it does not impede Ukrainian and Belarusian authorities from continuing the diversification of oil supplies. Latest Ukrainian plans include the supplies of Azerbaijani oil to Poland through the Belarusian territory. Earlier Ukraine allowed Belarus to use its pipeline Odessa-Brody in order to pump Venezuela oil for the Belarusian refinery in Mazyr. However, Belarus became less interested in the transit role of Ukraine after it secured extremely beneficial oil and gas agreements with Moscow.

Belarus is no longer the only place in Central Europe with authoritarian tendencies. 

After Yulia Timoshenko’s imprisonment, Ukraine is no longer a big friend of the European Union; it helps Belarus look less unpleasant to European politicians. Belarus is no longer the only place in Central Europe with clear authoritarian tendencies. Today the whole project of the Eastern Partnership is under threat. Ukraine considers the option of joining the Single Economic Space of Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, but Russia does not agree on the scheme “3+1” that Ukraine offers. And Ukraine is not ready to go further than 10-15 agreements within on Single Economic Space because  the country is primarily interested in the European integration.

Belarusian authorities now prefer to focus on economic cooperation with prominent Ukrainian businessmen. In November Belarusian prime-minister Mikhail Miasnikovich promised a Ukrainian tycoon Piotr Poroshenko favourable conditions for Ukrainian investments in food and engineering industries. This fosters the formation of pro-Belarusian lobby in the Ukrainian business and political elite. But any lobby can be effective without the political will of two presidents to improve their relations.

Nobody knows when exactly the long delayed meeting between Yanukovich and Lukashenko will take place. It is high time for Belarusian and Ukrainian decision-makers to realise that the strategic potential of bilateral relations is of much greater importance than temporary disagreements. And if both countries want to stay independent, they should unite their efforts to avoid isolation from the European Union and to balance pressure from Moscow.