La Biélorussie glisse dans l'orbite russe - Le Monde

19.02

La manoeuvre a un effet évident : celui d'arrimer la Biélorussie à la Russie, son premier partenaire commercial (45 %), son créancier favori. Pour Moscou, obsédé par la menace des "révolutions de couleur", ce petit pays de 10 millions d'habitants est une pièce importante dans le jeu des grandes puissances, juste après l'Ukraine : c'est la zone tampon avec l'Union européenne. Voilà pourquoi, fin novembre 2011, la Russie est venue à la rescousse de son petit voisin exsangue.

Elle lui a accordé une nouvelle ristourne sur les livraisons de gaz, à partir de 2012, en fixant le prix à 165,60 dollars pour 1 000 m³ (contre 416 dollars pour son voisin ukrainien). Moscou a aussi proposé un crédit de 10 milliards de dollars pour construire une centrale nucléaire électrique, d'ici à 2017. Le geste russe est intéressé. En échange, Gazprom a mis la main, pour 2,5 milliards de dollars, sur la totalité du capital de Beltransgaz, dont il détenait déjà 50 %. Ainsi, le géant russe contrôle les gazoducs de transit vers l'Europe via la Biélorussie. Prochain objectif majeur : la compagnie Belaruskali, qui produit de l'engrais potassique. La Chine convoite aussi ce rare joyau de l'économie biélorusse.

Cet afflux de crédits russes ne résout en rien les problèmes structurels de la Biélorussie. De nombreux experts estiment qu'après la présidentielle russe, Alexandre Loukachenko pourrait à nouveau jouer à l'équilibriste entre Bruxelles et Moscou, flattant l'un pour obtenir plus de l'autre. "Les petits frémissements vers l'UE sont purement tactiques, soupire un diplomate européen à Minsk. Loukachenko nous hait. C'est un Homo sovieticus."

Au-delà des coups de menton, le seul véritable acte d'insoumission vis-à-vis de Moscou a été, chez Alexandre Loukachenko, le refus de reconnaître l'indépendance de l'Ossétie du Sud et de l'Abkhazie, les deux régions séparatistes détachées de la Géorgie depuis la guerre d'août 2008. Mais pour le reste, malgré l'animosité qui existe entre le dirigeant biélorusse et Vladimir Poutine, Minsk penche naturellement vers son grand voisin.

Piotr Smolar

External source of this news: http://www.lemonde.fr/europe/article/2012/02/18/le-pays-glisse-dans-l-orbite-russe_1644972_3214.html

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La Biélorussie glisse dans l'orbite russe - Le Monde

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