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MINSK, 5 March (BelTA) – Belarus has good prospects for some economic revival this year, said Chief of the IMF mission in Belarus Chris Jarvis on 5 March after the mission’s work in Belarus was completed, BelTA has learnt.
He noted that the 2012 economic growth target of 5% in Belarus is underpinned by rapid economic growth in 2011. In H1 2011 the national economy was expanding extraordinary fast, but somewhat slowed down later. Therefore, to fulfill the economic growth targets this year, Belarus’ economy will need to demonstrate rapid growth every quarter. This is needed to ensure a 5% increase in GDP this year. According to Chris Jarvis, the country will find it hard to fulfill the target if it seeks to curb inflation.
Nevertheless, “the failure to fulfill this 5% economic growth target will not mean that the policy was wrong”, he said. “In fact, we believe that the current policy is justified and gives grounds to believe that the national economy will grow in the second half of 2012,” he emphasized.
The IMF expert commented on the recent reduction of the refinancing rate by the National Bank of Belarus. He believes that the reduction of the refinancing rate down to 38% was probably premature. This move could be done against the backdrop of lower interest rates of the National Bank and loan rates when the situation is more stable and inflation expectations are lower, he said. This is already happening in Belarus, he believes. However, it is important to make sure that “this will happen before the interest rates are reduced”.
